Aldo Agostinelli

For the first time in 10 years, analysts’ forecast concerning the BigG’s revenues are quite gloomy. The Google-Facebook duopoly has now become a tripolar regime.

For years they have been ruling the digital advertising world without competitors. However, the first component of the  Google and Facebook duopoly is now showing some cracks. To tell you the truth, also the popular social network is actually showing some weaknesses. But it is nothing too serious: the big advertisers, such as Adidas, Coca-Cola, Microsoft and Unilever which joined the Stop Hate For profit campaign blocking all investments in advertising, seem not to have caused a major concern. Or, at least, this is what Mr Zuckerberg claimed, stating that 500 rebel investors are still too few to cause  him to worry: they account for just 1% of his turnover (Il Boicottaggio degli Inserzionisti Pesa l’1% del Fatturato di Facebook).

The adv market is growing, Google’s is decreasing

Google’s position is different, instead. The advertising co-monopolist receiving part of the annual digital marketing advertising budget of all ( or almost all ) marketers, is not going to live the same 2020 as the others.

According to eMarketer analysts, indeed, for the first time since 2008, the company US digital advertising net revenues are going to decrease.

By the end of the year they are expected to record a decrease of 5,3%, and consequently Google’s share of the US digital advertising market  will decrease from 31,6% of 2019 to 29,4%, despite the fact that the overall adv market is actually expanding.

The butler is not the murder

We may blame the pandemics for this, but it would not be completely true. Coronavirus has affected the forecast, but the adv market is still positive: +1,7%.

The truth is that, since 2016, Google’s net advertising revenues have grown at a slower pace than those of the overall global market of digital advertising (Google Ad Revenues to Drop for the First Time).

From a duopoly to a tripolar rule

Many marketers and publishers have been keeping their fingers crossed for a while, now,  hoping for the end of the above mentioned duopoly. In the mentime more and more  fierce competitors have stepped up .

Nowadays, actually, such duopoly has become a tripolar regime whose players are Google, Facebok and Amazon.

However, the first is going to stay behind: the forecast show that Google’s share of search ads in the US is going to move down from 61,3% to 58,5%.

To the advantage of whom? Amazon, of course, which, after having invested in search for years has now recorded an unprecedented growth. And the pandemics has contributed, too.

It is time for Google to study some new countermoves.

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Aldo Agostinelli