Aldo Agostinelli

Warning messages to the Big G are multiplying: watch out web searches giant, your Kingdom is risking to collapse as it has already happened to others before you, although they had been expected to be untouchable. And should this happen, it would be, according to some, the most spectacular debacle in the high-tech market of all times. It is not just a few people’s opinion, but a forecast based on facts and figures (Google isn’t safe from Yahoo’s fate).

The foundations of Google empire are being undermined but the consistent, and at times massive, erosion of its advertising revenues, i.e. its main business. Since the early 2000s advertising has been the core business of Page and Brin’s creature, but over the past few years things have been changing. The development of new technologies and the emergence of new players in the IT market have led to a change in the matrix: from search to discovery (This is How Google will Collapse)

Amazon has proven to be Google’s main competitor, as well as the most fearsome and treacherous one. As I have already explained in my post entitled “Who is afraid of Amazon: the e-come titan is aiming to the paid search”, the e-com giant has evolved into a new kind of search engine people are now making great use of, totally cutting off the most traditional ones.

However, Bezos’s platform is not the only threat, since adblocking, the opportunity for both fixed and mobile users to block ads, has also significantly cut Google’s revenues. Apple was the first to act: in 2015 they introduced in their operating system for iPads and iPhones a function aimed at silencing 100% of banners and ads (Too much advertising is harmful, claimed Apple).

Unfortunately, 75% of the Big G’s revenues generated by on the go searches depended on iOS mobile. Quite a financial shock, indeed. Also, this made everyone aware of something that had been willingly neglected before: users hate on line advertising. Not everybody and not all ads  maybe, but, according to Statista, 30.1% of users in the United States are expected to adopt such block in  adv nel 2018 . Millennials and young people are going to be the first to do so, together with users aged 18-35: they have got money to spend but they will do it differently from their parents. Just to make an example, cars are considered not to be a fundamental asset while travelling is (to read more: “Market and Millennials: the solution comes from the Blockchain).

And what about Google? They have tried to react. In 2017 they announced the creation of an advblock for Chrome, still this didn’t change the trend. YouTube might have been an alternative source of earnings, but the video platform, despite its billion and a half users, has always been low in profits and is looking for new and better formulas for filling the gap (see From long tail to tv, YouTube adv strategies ). What is left is the Big G’s crown jewel: artificial intelligence. In 2016 Google General Manager Sundar Pichai has predicted the creation of an obiquitous virtual assistant   designed by Big G. In the meantime, however, Amazon has literally crashed all competitors with  Amazon Alexa and its best seller Echo (Amazon Alexa can be customized and outperforms all competitors ). The giant is no longer unbeatable.

Do you believe Google has become obsolete? What shall Mountain View focus on to get the lead back? Tweet @agostinellialdo.

To find out more about the digital world, you may read my latest book: “People Are Media” 

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Aldo Agostinelli